by The KCM Crew on January 18, 2012
There is no shortage of opinions as to where home prices are headed in 2012. From Clear Capital’s expectation that prices will show a ‘slight uptick’ this year to Fitch’s projection that prices ‘will fall another 13 percent’, there seems to be no consensus as to where real estate values are headed. How can there be such a disparity of opinion among industry experts? Prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand and there are many unanswered questions regarding both of these components.
Questions about Demand
Will this be the year that the 5.9 million adults between the ages of 25 and 34 that are still living with their parents decide to purchase a home of their own?
With mortgage payments lower than rent payments in the majority of the country, will first time buyers finally decide it makes more financial sense to buy rather than rent?
Will the baby boomers take advantage of the great deals available and start purchasing vacation and retirement homes?
Will investors continue to purchase large quantities of distressed properties?
Will hedge funds negotiate a deal with the banks for bulk purchases of foreclosures?
Questions about Supply
Will 2012 be the year that builders again increase inventories of newly constructed homes?
Will baby boomers put their primary residences up for sale and relocate to their retirement destinations?
Will 2012 be the year that the shadow inventory of foreclosures finally makes its way to market?
If prices depreciate, it will force more homes into a negative equity situation. Will this create another surge in short sales and foreclosures?
Will the government put together a plan to convert large numbers of foreclosures into rental properties?
Bottom Line
With so many unanswered questions regarding both the demand for housing and supply of properties, it is very difficult to determine where prices will be at the end of the year. We suggest you contact a local real estate professional to help you determine where values are headed in your area.
Nearly three quarters of potential buyers believe home prices will increase in their neighborhood in the next twelve months, twice as many as in the first quarter.
