Updates from February, 2012

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  • Do Appraisers Use Distressed Properties as Comparables?

    5:14 pm on February 8, 2012 | Comments:0
    Tags: , , , , , , ,   Filed under: Agent information, Buyer Info, Consumer news and advice, Foreclosure, Home owner information, pricing, Property Appraisal, Seller Info, Short Sale, Short sales

     

    Many of our readers ask us if appraisers use distressed properties (short sales and foreclosures) as comparables when doing an appraisal on non-distressed properties. We have posted on this issue on several occasions (examples: here and here). Last month, the Appraisal Institute issued a paper on the subject. In the paper, the Institute explained that:

    “Foreclosures and short sales can provide important information for appraisers, who develop valuations based on market data and market forces.”

    On whether an appraiser should use distressed properties as comparables, the Institute was very direct (all items in bold were shown as bold in the original paper):

    “An appraiser should not ignore foreclosure sales and short sales if consideration of such sales is necessary to develop a credible value opinion.”
    And they explained the possible differences between short sales and foreclosures:

    “A short sale … might have involved atypical seller motivations and so might not be an ideal comp…

    A sale of a bank-owned property might have involved typical motivations, so the fact that it was a foreclosed property would not render it ineligible as a comp.”

    Bottom Line

    Some will argue that distressed properties should not be used when appraising non-distressed properties. However, there is no longer any doubt that they will be.

    http://www.kcmblog.com/2012/02/07/do-appraisers-use-distressed-properties-as-comparables/

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  • Where Are House Prices Headed in 2012?

    9:15 am on January 19, 2012 | Comments:0
    Tags: , , , , , , , , ,   Filed under: Agent information, Buyer Info, Consumer news and advice, Housing Market, investment, Median Sales Price, pricing, Second Home Buyers, Seller Info, Supply and Demand, The Housing Market

    by The KCM Crew on January 18, 2012

    There is no shortage of opinions as to where home prices are headed in 2012. From Clear Capital’s expectation that prices will show a ‘slight uptick’ this year to Fitch’s projection that prices ‘will fall another 13 percent’, there seems to be no consensus as to where real estate values are headed. How can there be such a disparity of opinion among industry experts? Prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand and there are many unanswered questions regarding both of these components.

    Questions about Demand

    Will this be the year that the 5.9 million adults between the ages of 25 and 34 that are still living with their parents decide to purchase a home of their own?

    With mortgage payments lower than rent payments in the majority of the country, will first time buyers finally decide it makes more financial sense to buy rather than rent?

    Will the baby boomers take advantage of the great deals available and start purchasing vacation and retirement homes?

    Will investors continue to purchase large quantities of distressed properties?

    Will hedge funds negotiate a deal with the banks for bulk purchases of foreclosures?

    Questions about Supply

    Will 2012 be the year that builders again increase inventories of newly constructed homes?

    Will baby boomers put their primary residences up for sale and relocate to their retirement destinations?

    Will 2012 be the year that the shadow inventory of foreclosures finally makes its way to market?

    If prices depreciate, it will force more homes into a negative equity situation. Will this create another surge in short sales and foreclosures?

    Will the government put together a plan to convert large numbers of foreclosures into rental properties?

    Bottom Line

    With so many unanswered questions regarding both the demand for housing and supply of properties, it is very difficult to determine where prices will be at the end of the year. We suggest you contact a local real estate professional to help you determine where values are headed in your area.

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  • Florida Sales Report – 3rd Quarter 2011 Existing Condominiums

    9:40 am on November 17, 2011 | Comments:0
    Tags: , , , , , , ,   Filed under: Agent information, Buyer Info, Condominiums, Consumer news and advice, Florida Association of Realtors, Manatee, Median Sales Price, pricing, Sarasota, Seller Info, Statistics, The Housing Market

    Click on document below for printable format.

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  • 15 Cities Where Listing Prices Are Rebounding

    11:50 am on September 27, 2011 | Comments:0
    Tags: , , , , , , , ,   Filed under: Buyer Info, Charlotte County, Consumer news and advice, Manatee, NAR, National Association of Realtors, pricing, Sarasota, Seller Info, The Housing Market

    Daily Real Estate News | Friday, September 23, 2011

    By Melissa Dittmann Tracey, REALTOR® Magazine Daily News

    Prices are rising in Florida: Florida cities have had the largest year-over-year increases in average list prices, according to the latest real estate data from Realtor.com. Florida cities make up 9 of the top 10 places for highest year-over-year list price spikes, based off of August data of 2.2 million listings in 146 markets.

    Nationwide, the average list price is $320,325, up 2.36 percent year-over-year.

    Here are the top 15 cities boasting the highest percentage of year-over-year increases in average list prices. 

    1. Miami
    Average list price: $640,332
    Year-over-year increase: 27.4%

    2. Fort Myers-Cape Coral, Fla.
    Average list price: $443,570
    Year-over-year increase: 26.27%

    3. Central-Fla.-RSA
    Average list price: $405,809
    Year-over-year increase: 19.41%

    4. Punta Gorda, Fla.
    Average list price: $267,066
    Year-over-year increase: 16.37%

    5. Macon, Ga.
    Average list price: $193,520
    Year-over-year increase: 15.98%

    6. Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.
    Average list price: $466,785
    Year-over-year increase: 15.86%

    7. Naples, Fla.
    Average list price: $713,087
    Year-over-year increase: 15.13%

    8. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, Fla.
    Average list price: $591,895
    Year-over-year increase: 14.68%

    9. Ocala, Fla.
    Average list price: $193,360
    Year-over-year increase: 12.07%

    10. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.
    Average list price: $181,409
    Year-over-year increase: 11.48%

    11. Oralndo, Fla.
    Average list price: $319,419
    Year-over-year increase: 10.56%

    12. Portland-Vancouver, Ore.-Wash.
    Average list price: $314,537
    Year-over-year increase: 10.52%

    13. Boise City, Idaho
    Average list price: $212,588
    Year-over-year increase: 10.43%

    14. Springfield, Illinois
    Average list price: $174,537
    Year-over-year increase: 9.12%

    15. Shreveport-Bossier City, La.
    Average list price: $211,414
    Year-over-year increase: 8.34%

    Read More:
    August Existing-Home Sales Leap Despite Headwinds

    http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2011/09/23/15-cities-where-listing-prices-are-rebounding

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  • Soaring Prices Suggest a Florida Phenomenon

    9:25 am on September 22, 2011 | Comments:0
    Tags: , , , , , ,   Filed under: Agent information, Buyer Info, Charlotte County, Consumer news and advice, Florida, Home owner information, Manatee, Median Sales Price, pricing, Sarasota, Seller Info, Statistics, Supply and Demand, The Housing Market

    The numbers leap off the page.

    Seven of the top ten markets in the nation whose media list prices are up year over year are Florida markets. According to the latest data from Realtor.com, the world’s largest real estate site, Florida single family home and condo prices are zooming at the same time that the rest of the nation is still recovering from the first quarter’s double dip.

    August median prices in Fort Myers are up 33 percent from 2010. Miami is up 24 percent, Punta Gorda 20 percent, Sarasota-Bradenton 10 percent, Daytona 9.3 percent and Lakeland-Winter Haven 8.8 percent. Compared those increases to the national average increase for median list prices from all 146 metros tracked by Realtor.com: .46 percent.

    These amazing year over year numbers are not simply the result of being compared to prices during the August 2010 nose dive following the end of the tax credit. They are the real thing. A handful of Florida markets have been leading the Realtor.com hit parade since the end of the first quarter.

    With a high saturation of condos, resort, retirement and second homes, these markets were devastated by a combination of foreclosures evaporating demand. Massive inventories of distress sales and slow absorption drove prices to peak lows.

    Florida has a long way to go to get healthy. The median property in a number of Florida markets has lost half its value or more since 2006. The peak to trough price differential in many Florida markets is over 50 percent, among the greatest in the nation, according to Case-Shiller. In Miami, for example, prices fell over 50 percent and didn’t trough until the double dip in the first quarter of this year. Prices in Fort Lauderdale fell from 2006 at least 46 percent to 2010. Naples fell 52 percent. Tampa, 43 percent. Orlando, 51 percent.

    It makes sense that at some point bargain prices like these in prime Florida markets will attract investors, both foreign and domestic, and there have been bargains indeed. In Vero Beach, for example, the discount on foreclosures reached 53 percent in the second quarter; state-wide the media discount was 40 percent according to RealtyTrac. By all accounts that seems to be the case. In several markets, notably Orlando, Sarasota, Lakeland and Miami, demand has been strong enough to bring supply and demand into close enough balance to reduce median time for listings in inventory by five to 25 percent.

    Why then are markets like Jacksonville, Tampa and Orlando, where prices fell nearly as much as South Florida markets, not participating in the renaissance? Discounts, deals and demand—such as it is—don’t tell the whole story.

    The answer is fewer foreclosures, and in turn, reduced inventory. What differentiates markets like Fort Myers and Miami from Tampa and Orlando not just geography by a significant decline in foreclosure filings in South Florida that began early this year and reached 60 percent year to year decline in foreclosure activity in July and August.

    Miami-Dade County recorded 3,352 foreclosure-related actions in August, a 61 percent decrease from a year ago. Broward County had 2,806 foreclosure actions, a 63 percent decrease, while Palm Beach County recorded 2,035 foreclosure-related actions, a 66 percent decline, according to

    During the second quarter of 2011, foreclosure actions plunged by 51 percent in the tri-county South Florida region compared to the same three-month period in 2010, according to a new report from CondoVultures.com, a site listing condos.

    Fewer filings means fewer REOs are being listed, which has contributed to the significant reductions in inventories shared by all of the markets were pries are zooming. Almost all have reduced their inventories in the past 12 months, some dramatically. Since last year inventories of condos and single family homes are down 41 percent in Fort Myers, 47 percent in Miami, 32 percent in Punta Gorda, 33 percent in Sarasota, 32 percent in Daytona and 38 percent in Lakeland.

    How long will the Florida phenomenon last? Will double digit price increases discourage bargain hunters and encourage local owners to list their properties and dilute the inventory vacuum that has been behind the price? Is the foreclosure fall off a result of servicer processing delays rather than fewer defaults?

    Perhaps Bank of America answered that question when it doubled its foreclosure filings in South Florida in August. With a default rate well into the double digits, Florida still ranks number one in defaults. Until the larger economic picture improves, it’s hard to believe the Florida price phenomenon will last much longer.

    “Florida, particularly South Florida, is still in a real estate crisis and experts predict it will take a couple of years for Florida to win its battle over this downturn…Looks like there are going to be lots and lots of good bargains here in beautiful South Florida for those with the wherewithal to purchase them,” says Florida real estate attorney Rosa Eckstein Schechter.

    http://rismedia.com/2011-09-19/soaring-prices-suggest-a-florida-phenomenon/

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  • Five Ways to Fight a Low Appraisal

    9:00 am on September 8, 2011 | Comments:0
    Tags: ,   Filed under: Buyer Info, Consumer news and advice, pricing

    By Steve Cook

    What do you do when the appraisal on the dream home you want to buy comes in below the price in the offer the seller has accepted—even as much as 10 to 20 percent below?

    Chances are that raising the cash for your down payment and closing cost has tapped you out. Finding thousands more to make up the difference between the appraised value and the contracted amount is out of the question.

    You’re not the only buyer who has hit the low appraisal snag. This past June and July, 16 percent of real estate pros reported a cancelation in a sale, mostly due to a large number of low appraisals.

    However, you don’t have to walk away. In fact, some real estate professionals and economists say that low-ball appraisals are pushing home values down and undermining the housing recovery.

    You can fight back. You have options, and chances are you can find a way to make the deal work without increasing your down payment.

    Appraisals are largely based on prices recently paid for comparable local properties. Over the past decade, finding “comps” that accurately reflect values has been a challenge as values rose quickly during the boom and fell just as fast during the bust. Discounts paid for foreclosures and short sales have created a dual price structure between “normal” and distress sales.

    Finally, today many buyers rely on popular online valuation tools, called AVMs or automated valuation models, instead of a comparable market analysis from a real estate professional. AVMs give fast property value estimates, but they often differ greatly from appraised values because they are determined by algorithms using available local price data, not actual inspections of the property. During this time of record low home values, it’s no wonder that more and more appraisals are coming in below prices that buyers and sellers have agreed on.

    It may seem ironic that buyers would want the homes they want to buy to appraise for as much or more than they are willing to pay. Remember, the purpose of the appraisal is not to help you get a better price, but to protect your lender should you default. The lender wants assurance that your home will be worth enough to recoup their investment.

    Even if you have a great job, sterling credit, an adequate down payment and money in the bank, your lender will still want a conservative appraisal. In light of losses they have taken on the millions of foreclosures in recent years and the tough times many banks have had on Wall Street, lenders are taking no chances these days. They are more interested in protecting themselves from a loss than they are in giving you a loan.

    Here are five steps you can take to save your dream home:

    1. Get the seller to lower the price. By far, this is the easiest solution, especially if your appraisal comes in less than 10 percent of the contract price. Obviously, a lower price is a great idea for the buyer, but why would a seller go along? In July, 2011 the average home in America took about 88 days to sell. Demand is soft and time is money. Your seller, particularly if they are selling to buy another home, could be in a real bind if you are forced to back out and they have to put the house on the market again. After all, there is no guarantee that if you walk away, the seller won’t receive a low or even lower appraisal from the next buyer’s lender. Today, many buyers are offering incentives to sellers, such as payment of some or all closing costs. Lowering the price might be a cheaper option for the seller in order to get the deal done on time. Sometimes a bird in the hand is best.

    2. Ask the seller to offer to carry a second mortgage for the difference. This solution doesn’t cost the seller anything but the buyer incurs greater debt. If the buyer really wants the home but cannot come up with the difference in cash, making payments or a lump sum payment at a later date to the seller is an option. After the escrow closes, sellers often retain the right to discount the second mortgage, and can sell it for less than face value to an investor.

    3. Do your research and dispute the appraisal. Is the contract sales price a fair assessment of the property value based on a well-prepared comparable market analysis (CMA) from your real estate agent as opposed to an online AVM? Was the appraisal done by an appraisal management company that may have used a less-than-expert or out-of-town appraiser?

    Disputing the appraisal may sound a little aggressive but you might be the victim of a poorly prepared appraisal. Do some research first and go to war if you have the ammunition.

    You have the right to get a copy of the appraisal from your lender and to find out who did it. What is the appraiser’s reputation? Have any complaints been filed with your state appraisal licensing agency? Where is the appraiser based? Did they perform an appraisal in a housing market that they may not know well? Did the appraiser have adequate information about the subject property? If your appraisal was conducted by an out-of-town appraiser unfamiliar with your market, you have every right to demand a new appraisal.

    What comparables did they use? Ask your agent and the seller’s agent to put together a list of recent comparable sales that justify the agreed-to sales price. Submit that list to the underwriter and ask for a review of the appraisal. Also, ask the agents to call the listing agents of pending sales to try to find out the actual sales price of those properties. Listing agents do not have to disclose the sales price, but many are happy to help because they could find themselves in the same situation. Pending sales are more current and are not closed, so the original appraiser would not have access to them.

    The key to a successful dispute is data. You will need as much data you can get to back up your dispute.

    4. Ask the lender for a new appraisal. Should you find that you have a good case that the appraisal wasn’t fair or accurate, ask your lender for a new appraisal, which you may be charged for.

    Another strategy is to get two additional, unbiased appraisals and use the average of all three to arrive at a fair price. This is a risky strategy, in light of the fact that another appraisal might not come in higher than your first; it might even be lower if values have fallen.

    Depending on how convincing your argument is, your lender has the ability to override the appraisal estimate, which is unlikely, or to order a new appraisal, which is more likely. If a new appraisal is ordered, talk with your agent about somehow splitting the cost with the seller. Perhaps the listing agent and selling agent will split the fee so the buyer does not have to incur additional costs associated with the transaction. Appraisals cost around $400 or so.

    5. Get your own, independent appraisal. If you order your own appraisal and your loan is an FHA loan, ask the lender for a list of approved appraisers. Usually the bank will review your appraisal and ask the previous appraiser if they agree or disagree with the newly submitted one.

    If the first appraiser disputes your appraisal, the bank may request a third appraisal done by another appraiser, or they may just reject your appraisal.

    However, if the first appraiser agrees with the disputes you present, they may adjust their original appraisal and you may get a better price.

    If these tactics fail and you cannot make up the shortfall in the appraised value, you may find yourself moving on. If so, be sure that you were protected by a contingency clause in the sales contract, stating that the transaction can be terminated if the home doesn’t appraise at, or above, the sales price.

    For more information visit http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com.

    http://rismedia.com/2011-09-07/five-ways-to-fight-a-low-appraisal/

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  • Top of the Class

    9:24 am on August 22, 2011 | Comments:0
    Tags: , , ,   Filed under: Consumer news and advice, Global Affiliates, International, Mayfair International, pricing, Seller Info

    By Nick Churton, Mayfair International Realty

    August 22, 2011

    Everyone knows that selling real estate is like shelling peas. Right?  Brokers and agents have it easy.  They just put on the internet – and the property is as good as gone at its ambitious asking price. Right?

    Wrong!

    What about selling real estate at a time when not so many are interested in buying?  When buyers are strapped for cash; when the banks aren’t lending so much or so easily; when the country is facing a harsh austerity period and at a time of tenacious financial uncertainty.  What about selling real estate when a seller may be demanding more than the market will stand?  What about selling real estate when people have more pressing things to think about?  And how about selling real estate for someone whose personal circumstances – joyous, sad or desperate – crucially depend on an agent’s efforts, despite all the above negative market conditions. Then selling real estate is not quite so easy as many might suggest.

    But, cometh the moment cometh the agent.  Of course when the market is in overdrive it is easier to sell homes.  But now, in many areas, matters are more serious.  Selling property in this market needs an agent with experience, with heart and foresight and skill and purpose. One with a steady hand who understands that moving home is often played out over two legs. There’s the home leg, selling, and the away leg, buying.  This is a time to play the long game and to see and understand the bigger picture – and to be able to communicate this to anxious clients.  There comes a time when selling property has to be put into the hands of someone who is seriously good at what they do. This is the time for hiring the top of the class.

    If you want the agent who – even against your own optimistic judgement – has priced your home way higher than every one else, do go ahead if that makes you feel good.  But what will really make you feel good is selling your home and moving on to another.  And for that, right now, you need a professional.

    Red Adair, the famous oil well fire fighter said it perfectly, “If you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur!”  

     

     

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  • Florida Realtors Sales Reports June 2011

    12:08 pm on July 26, 2011 | Comments:0
    Tags: , , , , , ,   Filed under: Buyer Info, Condominiums, Consumer news and advice, Florida Association of Realtors, Home owner information, Manatee, pricing, Sarasota, Seller Info, Statistics

     Click on charts for a printable format.

     

     

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  • High Rollers Move Up

    9:15 am on July 12, 2011 | Comments:0
    Tags: , , , ,   Filed under: Buyer Info, Consumer news and advice, Luxury, pricing, Seller Info, The Housing Market

    By Steve Cook

    RISMEDIA, July 12, 2011—While a third of homeowners struggle to stay above water on their mortgages, nearly a quarter of those in the upper income tiers have been trading up to take advantage of deals in the luxury home market.

    Lured by lower prices, one in four U.S. consumers with annual income of $150,000 or more have bought a residential property since 2008 at a median purchase price of $509,000, up 3.2 percent from the 2005 to 2007 period. Most new residences (83 percent) are single-family homes and two-thirds of these are in suburban settings. Seventeen percent plan to purchase additional property this year, while 23 percent of those younger than 50 plan to buy in 2011.

    According a new survey by the Luxury Institute and the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, high net-worth homeowners are taking advantage of the downturn to trade up into higher-priced new primary residences. More than one-third (37 %) of the wealthy value their homes at $1 million or higher, while 32% assess their primary residence to be worth $500,000 or less.

    Seventy percent of wealthy home buyers used a real estate agent to help with their property purchase and two-thirds of those say that they would work again with the same agent.

    “Luxury home buyers recognize that many premium homes are available at relative bargains,” says Milton Pedraza, CEO of the Luxury Institute. “Similar to the luxury retail landscape, luxury home sales provide more evidence of durability at the high end of the market.”

    “Luxury is the good news story in real estate,” says Laurie Moore-Moore, CEO of The Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. “The number of wealthy households has jumped back to pre-recession levels and affluent home buyers are actively purchasing. The National Association of REALTORS®’ statistics show that national home sales at $1 million and above were up more than 18 percent year-over-year in 2010. Strong activity continues this year as well.”

    For more information, visit http://www.realestateeconomywatch.com.

    http://rismedia.com/2011-07-11/high-rollers-move-up/

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  • A Window of Opportunity for House Sellers

    1:38 pm on June 21, 2011 | Comments:0
    Tags: , ,   Filed under: Foreclosure, pricing, Seller Info

    by The KCM Crew on June 21, 2011

    There has been much confusion as to where housing prices are headed. We have actually blogged on the issue recently. Today, we want to give our opinion on this subject for the short term. We believe sellers have a window of opportunity for the next 90-120 days in which to sell their homes for maximum price. We believe there will be increased downward pressure on home prices later this year and the first half of 2012.

    Why renewed downward pressure?

    Any item’s price is determined by ‘supply and demand’. In many parts of the country existing housing inventory is already high and actually increasing. In addition, an inventory of distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) will be coming to market later this year. This inventory has been delayed for the last several months because of faulty paperwork by the banks when they originally attempted foreclosure proceedings on these homes.

    Celia Chen, of Moody’s Analytics explains:

    “Foreclosures are weighing on the outlook for U.S. house prices, and the slow resolution of issues surrounding the so-called robo-signing scandal is keeping distressed homes off the market”.

    The New York Times also recently reported on this issue. They looked at the delays in certain states. As an example, this is what they found in New York:

    “Last September, before the documentation crisis, nearly 1,500 New Yorkers lost their houses as a result of foreclosure, according to LPS. The average over the last six months: 286. That is far lower than at any point since the recession began.”

    Banks are now correcting these errors.

    There is evidence that the banks are getting their documentation in order and about to again increase their foreclosure repossessions. Housing Wirereported:

    “Since major lenders delayed foreclosures to fix a broken process late last year, the amount of filings declined, but in May signs emerged the effect might be wearing off.”

    They went on to quote RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio:

    “…lenders are somewhat unevenly pushing batches of bad loans through foreclosure as they overhaul their paperwork and documentation procedures and as they determine that some local markets are able to absorb more foreclosure inventory…Foreclosure processing delays continue to mask the true face of the foreclosure situation, although there were some clues in the May numbers of what lies behind that mask.”

    What will this mean to home prices?

    As this inventory comes to market, it will impact prices in two ways:

    1. It will provide discounted competition for buyers
    2. It will impact the appraisal values of all homes in the area

    Again, we quote Celia Chen:

    “It is quite possible that house prices will pick up slightly in the second or third quarter of this year, as foreclosure sales remain depressed while nondistress sales pick up…By the fourth quarter of this year, however, the distress share will rise, sending the house price index back down…

    House prices will founder until early next year and start rising in earnest at the end of 2012.”

    Bottom Line

    There is a window of opportunity currently which sellers should take advantage of. Waiting until later this year or until next year will not guarantee a higher sales price. If anything, it probably guarantees the exact opposite.

    http://kcmblog.com/2011/06/21/a-window-of-opportunity-for-house-sellers/#more-8264

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