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Home-selling Strategies by Chris Kaucnik
RISMEDIA, September 2, 2010—Thanks to some favorable conditions, like perceived value and affordability, international home buyers, especially from Canada, Mexico, China and India are eyeing the U.S. a bit more these days. Over 40% of the international home-buying transactions come from these four countries. And you can capitalize on these buyers more easily than you might think, but first you should learn more about them. (More …)
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RISMEDIA, August 26, 2010—Home sales statistics are likely to paint a picture of a weakening market through the end of 2010 and the first half of 2011. While it’s tempting to attribute the bleak numbers to a deteriorating housing market, an economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University said that doesn’t tell the whole story.
“The year-over-year decline in existing home sales will be the result of comparing months when there was no tax credit with those from a year earlier, when the tax credit was artificially increasing sales,” said Dr. Mark Dotzour, the Center’s chief economist. (More …)
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by The KCM Crew on August 20, 2010
We have been discussing home prices in this blog for over a year. The principle of ‘supply and demand’ has been our rallying cry for the entire duration. Pricing of any item is determined by the number of items for sale in ratio to the number of purchasers looking to buy that item.
Here is an industry guideline we have used:
- 1-4 months inventory means it is a sellers’ market and we can expect appreciation.
- 5-6 months inventory means it is a balanced market with prices following inflation.
- 7+ months inventory means it is a buyers’ market and we can expect depreciation.
It now appears that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is letting their membership know that ‘supply and demand’ will determine house prices for the foreseeable future. In two separate reports released on Wednesday, NAR addressed the issue of both an increasing supply of homes for sale and a decreasing demand.
In Economic Commentary: Varying Signs, Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, speaks of the anticipated demand for housing for the rest of the year:
“One thing is clear, however: slow business spending will mean slow economic expansion and a slow pace of job creation. The frustration of traveling at 40 mph on a wide open 70 mph freeway will be with us for the foreseeable future if businesses continue to hold back. The unemployment rate could also remain stuck at a stubbornly high level — 9.5 to 10 percent. It also means that home sales in the second half of this year will be markedly slower than in the first half of 2010.” (emphasis added)
Jed Smith, Managing Director, Quantitative Research for NAR in a report titled The Housing Markets: Supply, Demand, and Current Issues addresses increased supply:
“There has also been concern over a potential shadow inventory of distressed properties: as of the first quarter of 2010 over 6.5 million homes were in foreclosure or had overdue mortgage payments. Possibly as much as 75 percent of the shadow inventory will ultimately be sold as distressed. However, given the ongoing time delays for problem resolution it appears that distressed properties will enter the market at approximately the current or a slightly increased rate for the next few years. Foreclosures are a major negative market influence in terms of price, consumer confidence, and expectations; however, a tsunami of shadow inventory appears unlikely.”
There are 4.875 million distressed properties that will come to market (75% of 6.5 million). Last year, according to NAR, there were just over 5 million homes sold. If not a tsunami, there will at least be some very stormy weather as we hope for a recovery in housing. Smith goes on to say:
“A number of homeowners who have deferred listing their homes due to market conditions may also now reenter the market, resulting in increased home inventories as the economy recovers. Once the employment numbers improve, pent-up demand may help to increase sales. In the short run, however, we may actually see additional inventory on the market as a result of listings by deferred sellers.”
More and more homeowners that had held off putting their homes up for sale in hopes of a housing recovery, now realize that a recovery may not occur for some time. They are now placing their homes on the market.
What does that mean for prices?
The report by Smith puts it all into perspective:
“An increase in the inventory of unsold homes indicates that there is an excess supply relative to demand…Prices tend to rise as supply falls. During the first part of 2010 the months’ supply of inventory decreased from earlier highs—accompanied by stabilizing prices. In June, month’s supply increased to 8.9 months from the previous 8.3 months. If the increase proves to be a temporary adjustment due to pent-up listing of homes, then prices should continue to stabilize, particularly if employment increases. If inventory supply continues to increase without adequate job increases, the housing market will be subject to additional pricing pressures.”
NAR releases their Existing Homes Sales Report next Tuesday. We’ll report on the months’ supply of inventory shown in that report.
http://kcmblog.com/2010/08/20/nar-says-its-now-about-supply-and-demand/#more-5544
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Washington, August 24, 2010
Existing-home sales were sharply lower in July following expiration of the home buyer tax credit but home prices continued to gain, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009. (More …)
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by Steve Harney on August 16, 2010
I believe very strongly in the importance of homeownership in this country. A home is much more than just a financial investment. It is a parents’ investment in their children. It is a family’s investment in their community. It is the people’s investment in America. (More …)
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ORLANDO, Fla., Aug. 11, 2010 – Sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose 21 percent in second quarter 2010 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the latest housing statistics from Florida Realtors®. A total of 51,564 existing homes sold statewide in 2Q 2010; during the same period the year before, a total of 42,604 existing homes sold. It marks the eighth consecutive quarter that Florida has seen higher existing year-to-year home sales, according to the state association.
Statewide sales of existing condominiums in the second quarter rose 45 percent compared to the same time the previous year. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter for increased statewide sales in both the existing home and condo markets compared to year-ago levels. (More …)
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RISMEDIA, August 12, 2010—Clear Capital, a premium provider of data and solutions for real estate asset valuation, investment and risk assessment released its Home Data Index (HDI) Market Report. Patent pending rolling quarter technology significantly reduces the multi-month lag time associated with other indices to help investors, loan servicers and individual buyers and sellers make more informed, timely and profitable decisions.
“Home prices continue to show positive growth from the first quarter of the year,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, senior statistician, Clear Capital. “This trend indicates that the initial upward momentum created by the tax credit expiration is being sustained.” (More …)
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by Steve Harney on August 2, 2010
I realize that many of today’s sellers are forced to sell their homes because they have fallen on tough economic times. They need to ‘get out from under’ the financial burden of a mortgage they can no longer afford to pay. They might have very little equity or may even be in a negative equity situation. My heart goes out to those families. Today’s blog post is not speaking to this segment of sellers. (More …)
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by The KCM Crew on August 3, 2010
The big question in real estate is what will happen with home prices over the next few months. The experts have already weighed-in predicting prices will probably take another dip down. The reasoning? Put simply, the inventory of homes on the market is greater than the demand for housing.
Demand will remain stable at best. No study or report is predicting a dramatic increase in demand over previous estimates. PMI, Inc. is actually cutting their forecast back. In their most recent issue of The Home and Mortgage Market Review they announced:
“We have lowered our projection of home sales for 2010 in response to the larger-than-expected decline in sales in May.” (More …)
