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Updates from December, 2011
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Florida Sales Report November 2011 Exisiting Condominiums
MSC Marketing
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Florida Sales Report for November 2011 for Single Family Existing Homes
MSC Marketing
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Florida Sales Report – 3rd Quarter 2011 Existing Condominiums
MSC Marketing
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Florida Sales Report – 3rd Quarter 2011 Single-Family, Existing Homes
MSC Marketing
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Trendgraphix Market Report September 2011
Beth Ward
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Michael Saunders & Company Year-to-Date Website and Market Leader Stats, September 2011
Beth Ward
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Trendgraphix Market Report August 2011
MSC Marketing
** Click on the image below for the full Market Trend report.
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Healthiest Housing Markets: Mid-2011 Update
MSC Marketing
From: BUILDER 2011 Posted on: September 15, 2011 2:57:00 PM
It’s time to take a second look at the healthiest housing markets for this year and next.
What can you say about the fickle economic forces that drive the home building industry? Markets that were among the healthiest six months ago have lost favor, due to weakness in the oil and gas sector of the economy. They’ve been replaced in some cases by unexpected markets that have worked through job losses and foreclosures to reach a much brighter place.
Twice annually, Builder works with Hanley Wood Market Intelligence to compile a list of the healthiest housing markets in the United States, based on forward projections for the metrics that drive housing production–jobs, price appreciation, population growth, and income growth. The projections come from Moody’s Economy.com.
Earlier this year, markets in Texas and the Carolinas dominated the list looking at 2011 market-level forecasts, thanks to growth in the oil economy in the case of Texas, and strong population growth in the case of the Carolinas. Both regions also had on their side a recovery in home prices as they worked through foreclosure issues.
Economic conditions in the oil patch aren’t quite as favorable today. And some bloom has come off the rose in the Carolinas, where home prices in some markets have double-dipped. As a result, our forward-looking view of the 20 healthiest markets is a little different today.
A lot has happened in the housing market since we last compiled this list in February. We had a double-dip in home prices. Only a small improvement in employment occurred on a national basis. And the long-vaunted housing recovery, which most housing economists pegged for late this year, hasn’t materialized.
Rising home prices, job gains, and improvement in median incomes will drive the healthiest markets over the next year and a half. Moody’s projects that permit activity may double in some of the very hottest of these markets, as the long-awaited housing recovery takes hold.
Markets that benefit from military spending, or major universities, once again crowd the top of our list. Some markets hit the trifecta with military bases, big universities, and strong private sector employment. But several of the state capitals that appeared on previous versions of the list have dropped to the bottom due to fiscal problems that resulted in layoffs.
Here, without further ado, are the 20 healthiest housing markets based on forecasts through 2012. Though permits weren’t used to produce the market health calculations, we’ve included forecasts for total housing permits in 2011 and 2012 to give you a sense of how big the market is and how much it’s expected to grow over the next 18 months.
Credit: Flickr user david_shankbone20: Greeley, Colo.
Health Index: 72
2010 Population Forecast: 252,825
2011 Total Building Permit Forecast: 1,532
2012 Total Building Permit Forecast: 2,510
The forces lifting the housing market along Colorado‘s Front Range are spilling into Greeley, located about an hour’s drive northwest of Denver. Home prices here never got out of control during the housing boom and reset early in the housing recession. Also, the region dealt early and effectively with its foreclosure situation.
Now, positive economic forces are taking hold along Colorado’s Front Range. In fact, all the main drivers of new home construction, home prices, jobs, population, and incomes, are expected to turn solidly positive in Greeley next year.
Home to Northern Colorado University and the North Colorado Medical Center, Greeley is projected to have some of the strongest population growth (1.8%) in the country. With a median home price of about $140,000 this summer, Greeley is an affordable alternative to Denver. A strengthening local economy will lift the median income here by 4.2%.
Visit our Local Markets page for Greeley to see more data and analysis.
Credit: Courtesy ZK Homes (More …) -
Soaring Prices Suggest a Florida Phenomenon
MSC Marketing
The numbers leap off the page.
Sev
en of the top ten markets in the nation whose media list prices are up year over year are Florida markets. According to the latest data from Realtor.com, the world’s largest real estate site, Florida single family home and condo prices are zooming at the same time that the rest of the nation is still recovering from the first quarter’s double dip.August median prices in Fort Myers are up 33 percent from 2010. Miami is up 24 percent, Punta Gorda 20 percent, Sarasota-Bradenton 10 percent, Daytona 9.3 percent and Lakeland-Winter Haven 8.8 percent. Compared those increases to the national average increase for median list prices from all 146 metros tracked by Realtor.com: .46 percent.
These amazing year over year numbers are not simply the result of being compared to prices during the August 2010 nose dive following the end of the tax credit. They are the real thing. A handful of Florida markets have been leading the Realtor.com hit parade since the end of the first quarter.
With a high saturation of condos, resort, retirement and second homes, these markets were devastated by a combination of foreclosures evaporating demand. Massive inventories of distress sales and slow absorption drove prices to peak lows.
Florida has a long way to go to get healthy. The median property in a number of Florida markets has lost half its value or more since 2006. The peak to trough price differential in many Florida markets is over 50 percent, among the greatest in the nation, according to Case-Shiller. In Miami, for example, prices fell over 50 percent and didn’t trough until the double dip in the first quarter of this year. Prices in Fort Lauderdale fell from 2006 at least 46 percent to 2010. Naples fell 52 percent. Tampa, 43 percent. Orlando, 51 percent.
It makes sense that at some point bargain prices like these in prime Florida markets will attract investors, both foreign and domestic, and there have been bargains indeed. In Vero Beach, for example, the discount on foreclosures reached 53 percent in the second quarter; state-wide the media discount was 40 percent according to RealtyTrac. By all accounts that seems to be the case. In several markets, notably Orlando, Sarasota, Lakeland and Miami, demand has been strong enough to bring supply and demand into close enough balance to reduce median time for listings in inventory by five to 25 percent.
Why then are markets like Jacksonville, Tampa and Orlando, where prices fell nearly as much as South Florida markets, not participating in the renaissance? Discounts, deals and demand—such as it is—don’t tell the whole story.
The answer is fewer foreclosures, and in turn, reduced inventory. What differentiates markets like Fort Myers and Miami from Tampa and Orlando not just geography by a significant decline in foreclosure filings in South Florida that began early this year and reached 60 percent year to year decline in foreclosure activity in July and August.
Miami-Dade County recorded 3,352 foreclosure-related actions in August, a 61 percent decrease from a year ago. Broward County had 2,806 foreclosure actions, a 63 percent decrease, while Palm Beach County recorded 2,035 foreclosure-related actions, a 66 percent decline, according to
During the second quarter of 2011, foreclosure actions plunged by 51 percent in the tri-county South Florida region compared to the same three-month period in 2010, according to a new report from CondoVultures.com, a site listing condos.
Fewer filings means fewer REOs are being listed, which has contributed to the significant reductions in inventories shared by all of the markets were pries are zooming. Almost all have reduced their inventories in the past 12 months, some dramatically. Since last year inventories of condos and single family homes are down 41 percent in Fort Myers, 47 percent in Miami, 32 percent in Punta Gorda, 33 percent in Sarasota, 32 percent in Daytona and 38 percent in Lakeland.
How long will the Florida phenomenon last? Will double digit price increases discourage bargain hunters and encourage local owners to list their properties and dilute the inventory vacuum that has been behind the price? Is the foreclosure fall off a result of servicer processing delays rather than fewer defaults?
Perhaps Bank of America answered that question when it doubled its foreclosure filings in South Florida in August. With a default rate well into the double digits, Florida still ranks number one in defaults. Until the larger economic picture improves, it’s hard to believe the Florida price phenomenon will last much longer.
“Florida, particularly South Florida, is still in a real estate crisis and experts predict it will take a couple of years for Florida to win its battle over this downturn…Looks like there are going to be lots and lots of good bargains here in beautiful South Florida for those with the wherewithal to purchase them,” says Florida real estate attorney Rosa Eckstein Schechter.
http://rismedia.com/2011-09-19/soaring-prices-suggest-a-florida-phenomenon/
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Florida Realtors Sales Reports Second Quarter 2011
MSC Marketing
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