Despite forecasts that prices will increase less in 2013 than this year, buyers are more concerned by rising prices than the overall economy. Thirty-three percent of buyers listed rising prices as a major concern in the fourth quarter, up from just 23 percent in the third quarter. Meanwhile, 22 percent said they were concerned with a weak economy, down from 27 percent in the third quarter, according to the Redfin Real-Time Homebuyer Survey. From November 30 to December 2, 2012, Redfin surveyed 1,084 active homebuyers who had toured a home with a Redfin agent since August 14.
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by The KCM Crew on November 5, 2012
We are often asked where we think home prices are headed over the next year. Recently, several groups have stepped forward and given their projections as to what level of appreciation we can expect by the end of 2013. Here is what they said:
Demand Institute Study: 1.75% appreciation
Urban Land Institute: 2%
Home Price Expectation Survey: 2.44%
National Assoc of Business Economists: 2.8%
Wall Street Journal’s Survey of Economists: 3.25%
All five groups are calling for home values to rise through the end of next year. However, none are projecting that we will hit historic annual appreciation levels (3.6%) that existed prior to the housing bubble. Print This Post
Sparked by rising home prices across much of the nation, the housing recovery is now under way, but fiscal uncertainties and other challenges could result in a bumpy ride in the coming months, according to economists participating in a recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) webinar on the construction and economic outlook.
“We’re seeing a more robust housing sector than many other parts of the economy,” says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “One of the reasons is we have finally begun to see on a national scale that house prices are picking up again.”
Crowe cited a number of other factors that are carrying the housing momentum forward. These include: Print This Post
by The KCM Crew on September 10, 2012
There has been a lot of excitement about home prices over the last few months. Though we agree that the housing industry is in a full out recovery, we also believe that there will still be price volatility over the next several months. We must realize home sales are seasonal and that fact impacts prices.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for National Association of Realtors, explains that the inventory of lower priced homes has been constrained leading to the rise in median home prices:
“Fewer sales in the lower price ranges are contributing to stronger increases in the median price, but all of the home price measures now are showing positive movement and that is building confidence in the market.”
Celia Chen, housing analyst at Moody’s Analytics projects that this positive price movement may not be sustained over the next few months as more distressed properties enter the market: Print This Post
by CoreLogic Research Posted Wed, 2012-07-25 09:49
The MarketPulse Report for July is available for free download. There are several significant findings in the report.
- Home prices are up in many markets as high negative equity shares keep many sellers off the market and demand for distressed properties remains high.
- The lower end of the home price tier is rebounding at more than three times the rate of the upper end driven by distressed sales.
- The Home Price Index (HPI), including distressed sales, posted the largest year-over-year spring price gain in the last 25 years.
- Estimates show that refinancing accounted for 70 percent of the total mortgage originations market over the past 12 months.
To find out more about these surprising findings, you can download the report here . Print This Post
by Ken H. Johnson on May 23, 2012
This is a post we originally ran this time last year by Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D. — Florida International University (FIU) and Editor of the Journal of Housing Research as our guest blogger. To view other research from FIU, visit http://realestate.fiu.edu/. - The KCM Crew
Are there any negative effects from changing the listing price of a property? This question haunts Brokers/Agents as well as sellers of property every day. At present, there does not seem to be a consensus answer to this question within the professional real estate community. Fortunately, this question was scientifically investigated by John R. Knight. Unfortunately, few know the results of Professor Knight’s research.
In Knight, the impact of changing a property’s listing price is investigated. Additionally, the types of property that are most likely to experience a price change are also estimated. (More …) Print This Post
Many of our readers ask us if appraisers use distressed properties (short sales and foreclosures) as comparables when doing an appraisal on non-distressed properties. We have posted on this issue on several occasions (examples: here and here). Last month, the Appraisal Institute issued a paper on the subject. In the paper, the Institute explained that:
“Foreclosures and short sales can provide important information for appraisers, who develop valuations based on market data and market forces.”
On whether an appraiser should use distressed properties as comparables, the Institute was very direct (all items in bold were shown as bold in the original paper):
“An appraiser should not ignore foreclosure sales and short sales if consideration of such sales is necessary to develop a credible value opinion.”
And they explained the possible differences between short sales and foreclosures:
“A short sale … might have involved atypical seller motivations and so might not be an ideal comp…
A sale of a bank-owned property might have involved typical motivations, so the fact that it was a foreclosed property would not render it ineligible as a comp.”
Some will argue that distressed properties should not be used when appraising non-distressed properties. However, there is no longer any doubt that they will be. Print This Post
by The KCM Crew on January 18, 2012
There is no shortage of opinions as to where home prices are headed in 2012. From Clear Capital’s expectation that prices will show a ‘slight uptick’ this year to Fitch’s projection that prices ‘will fall another 13 percent’, there seems to be no consensus as to where real estate values are headed. How can there be such a disparity of opinion among industry experts? Prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand and there are many unanswered questions regarding both of these components.
Questions about Demand
Will this be the year that the 5.9 million adults between the ages of 25 and 34 that are still living with their parents decide to purchase a home of their own?
With mortgage payments lower than rent payments in the majority of the country, will first time buyers finally decide it makes more financial sense to buy rather than rent?
Will the baby boomers take advantage of the great deals available and start purchasing vacation and retirement homes?
Will investors continue to purchase large quantities of distressed properties?
Will hedge funds negotiate a deal with the banks for bulk purchases of foreclosures?
Questions about Supply
Will 2012 be the year that builders again increase inventories of newly constructed homes?
Will baby boomers put their primary residences up for sale and relocate to their retirement destinations?
Will 2012 be the year that the shadow inventory of foreclosures finally makes its way to market?
If prices depreciate, it will force more homes into a negative equity situation. Will this create another surge in short sales and foreclosures?
Will the government put together a plan to convert large numbers of foreclosures into rental properties?
With so many unanswered questions regarding both the demand for housing and supply of properties, it is very difficult to determine where prices will be at the end of the year. We suggest you contact a local real estate professional to help you determine where values are headed in your area. Print This Post
Daily Real Estate News | Friday, September 23, 2011
By Melissa Dittmann Tracey, REALTOR® Magazine Daily NewsPrices are rising in Florida: Florida cities have had the largest year-over-year increases in average list prices, according to the latest real estate data from Realtor.com. Florida cities make up 9 of the top 10 places for highest year-over-year list price spikes, based off of August data of 2.2 million listings in 146 markets.
Nationwide, the average list price is $320,325, up 2.36 percent year-over-year.
Here are the top 15 cities boasting the highest percentage of year-over-year increases in average list prices.
Average list price: $640,332
Year-over-year increase: 27.4%
2. Fort Myers-Cape Coral, Fla.
Average list price: $443,570
Year-over-year increase: 26.27%
Average list price: $405,809
Year-over-year increase: 19.41%
4. Punta Gorda, Fla.
Average list price: $267,066
Year-over-year increase: 16.37%
5. Macon, Ga.
Average list price: $193,520
Year-over-year increase: 15.98%
6. Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.
Average list price: $466,785
Year-over-year increase: 15.86%
7. Naples, Fla.
Average list price: $713,087
Year-over-year increase: 15.13%
8. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, Fla.
Average list price: $591,895
Year-over-year increase: 14.68%
9. Ocala, Fla.
Average list price: $193,360
Year-over-year increase: 12.07%
10. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.
Average list price: $181,409
Year-over-year increase: 11.48%
11. Oralndo, Fla.
Average list price: $319,419
Year-over-year increase: 10.56%
12. Portland-Vancouver, Ore.-Wash.
Average list price: $314,537
Year-over-year increase: 10.52%
13. Boise City, Idaho
Average list price: $212,588
Year-over-year increase: 10.43%
14. Springfield, Illinois
Average list price: $174,537
Year-over-year increase: 9.12%
15. Shreveport-Bossier City, La.
Average list price: $211,414
Year-over-year increase: 8.34% Print This Post
August 22, 2011
Everyone knows that selling real estate is like shelling peas. Right? Brokers and agents have it easy. They just put on the internet – and the property is as good as gone at its ambitious asking price. Right?
What about selling real estate at a time when not so many are interested in buying? When buyers are strapped for cash; when the banks aren’t lending so much or so easily; when the country is facing a harsh austerity period and at a time of tenacious financial uncertainty. What about selling real estate when a seller may be demanding more than the market will stand? What about selling real estate when people have more pressing things to think about? And how about selling real estate for someone whose personal circumstances – joyous, sad or desperate – crucially depend on an agent’s efforts, despite all the above negative market conditions. Then selling real estate is not quite so easy as many might suggest.
But, cometh the moment cometh the agent. Of course when the market is in overdrive it is easier to sell homes. But now, in many areas, matters are more serious. Selling property in this market needs an agent with experience, with heart and foresight and skill and purpose. One with a steady hand who understands that moving home is often played out over two legs. There’s the home leg, selling, and the away leg, buying. This is a time to play the long game and to see and understand the bigger picture – and to be able to communicate this to anxious clients. There comes a time when selling property has to be put into the hands of someone who is seriously good at what they do. This is the time for hiring the top of the class.
If you want the agent who – even against your own optimistic judgement – has priced your home way higher than every one else, do go ahead if that makes you feel good. But what will really make you feel good is selling your home and moving on to another. And for that, right now, you need a professional.
Red Adair, the famous oil well fire fighter said it perfectly, “If you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur!”